NCI Future of Feeding Webinar Series | Featuring Dr. Robert Thaler
Each month, NCI holds a new update in the Future of Feeding webinar series, which focuses on using innovation in the processing of animal food, the equipment being used, as well as using grains from our region for co-products. This month, we featured speaker Dr. Robert Thaler, Professor and Extension Swine Specialist from South Dakota State University. During the webinar, he discussed the topic of renewable diesel and how it could potentially change the way livestock are fed.
Thaler led off by discussing renewable diesel’s impact on the world and an overview of recent advances made with the technology. He explained that these renewable diesels have cut C02 regulations more than any other alternative in the state of California. Since 2011, more than 32 million tons of this compound have been eliminated, which exceeds the reduction made by electric vehicles and other alternatives. As a result of its increasing promise as an alternative to fossil fuels, more and more policies are being drafted to promote and expand its usage. Despite this, though, opposition to the technology remains, citing concerns such as straining grain demand and others.
It’s important to note that renewable diesels are not the same thing as biodiesels. This is a common misconception, hence Thaler stressing the difference here. While they’re both made from the same materials (soybean oil, corn oil, etc.), they differ in two key ways. Renewable diesel is used to replace regular diesel on a 1:1 basis, while biodiesels are manufactured using a different process and are used more as blending agents.
Corn prices have been steadily increasing since a drop in 2020 associated with the pandemic, which has impacted the ethanol market substantially. Additionally, ethanol prices for this year and last year are also significantly above what the 5-year average is, and the same can be said for soybean oil and white grease prices. Looking at the overall numbers for biodiesel prices in general reveals that they’ve surged an astonishing 91% in November 2022 as compared to January of last year. Renewable diesel production capacity has ramped up considerably in the last few years as well, and is expected to also surge leading into the 2030’s.
However, this growth is held back by one major obstacle. Thaler stated that, while materials such as soybean oil, corn oil, tallow, and choice white grease can be used to manufacture this renewable diesel, it’s currently mostly diverged for use in livestock feed. This is detrimental to the growth of renewable diesel, since these materials are not available for use in renewable diesel production thanks to being used in livestock feed manufacturing. However, this is starting to swing the other way, with producers citing concerns around the exorbitant cost of using these oils and fats along with the reduced performance that they have been proven to exhibit.
Soy crushing plants (those that crush soybeans into soybean meal and soybean oil) are also seeing an expansion across the Midwest region. As the chart to the right shows, about half of the plants in the region have just been announced, with the rest seeing expansion in terms of their crushing capacity. The largest plant, the ADM plant in Spirit Wood, ND, is set to increase its crushing capacity to 52.5 million bushels per year. Even the smallest plant, the Cargill plant in Cedar Rapids, IA, has still increased its capacity to 5.25 million bushels per year. The total production capacity for all the plants listed on this chart is nearly 600 million bushels per year – a substantial increase from what it was not that long ago.
Despite this great news, Thaler pointed out something crucial: while they have access to these bountiful production sites, U.S. refiners and biofuel companies are likely to reach less than half of the renewable diesel production capabilities forecasted for 2025. This is because of policy and feedstock constraints, which limit how much they can produce. And, despite this growth in the production centers, an additional 1 billion bushels of crush soybeans are estimated to be what’s required to meet the demand for biomass-based diesel for that year, which is much greater than the current production capacity of the centers shown above.
In order to resolve this, an estimated 12.4 million new acres of soybeans will need to be planted, which will cut into potential acreage available for corn, cotton, and other commodities while also resulting in cutting back on soybean exports. Doing this will release an estimated 620 million bushels of soybeans and 930 million gallons of biodiesel, which is exactly what could alleviate these concerns. This will in turn lower the prices of the soybeans, and that cost savings will be passed on to producers. Though, it should be noted that less corn being available (through the adjustments outlined previously) will have the opposite effect; corn prices will rise and so will the cost of ethanol production.
The factors outlined above will surely impact the swine industry, particularly swine feed. Soybean meal, in the words of Thaler, has long been considered the “gold standard” for protein in swine feed; however, cost has long been the limiting factor in including it in their feed. To compensate for this, corn has long been used instead along with synthetic amino acids. However, despite this cost issue, Thaler stated that it’s likely inevitable that, eventually, soybean meal will replace corn as the principle energy source in swine feed.
Doing this has numerous benefits for the diet of the cattle, Thaler explained. More finishing nitrogen and phosphorus has been observed in the composition of the manure from livestock whose feed was switched from corn-based proteins to soybean meal-based proteins. This potential has led to experimentation with changing the composition of distiller’s grains, though these have varied in terms of the results that they’ve achieved with the livestock. Concerns have also been raised regarding altering diet formulations for livestock too much, since they typically don’t handle drastic diet changes well.
The Northern Crops Institute greatly appreciates Dr. Robert Thaler’s involvement and input in our webinar. At NCI, we continue to work towards fulfilling our mission to support regional agriculture and value-added processing by conducting educational and technical programs that expand and maintain domestic and international markets for northern grown crops. All of this wouldn’t be possible without the innovative ideas of guest speakers like Thaler.
For more information about future webinars offered at NCI, click here.
To watch the recording, click the video below.